Haven't read the book, but for those who don't know who Zeihan is, his work follows two threads of post-WWII history:
1. Deglobalization; and
2. Depopulation
The article focuses mostly on deglobalization, but depopulation is in the horse pulling the cart.
Many are familiar with the deglobalization idea from the last US presidential administration. The current administration kept those tariffs, and abided by the previous commitment to exit Afghanistan. Zeihan argues that this trend toward increasing isolationism goes back decades.
What may seem less familiar is the demographic implosion the entire world is undergoing - a baby bust. The vast majority of major countries with the exception of the US and Mexico have passed a point of no return demographically. Their populations will shrink with mathematical certainty. As their populations ebb, so will their economic growth prospects and place on the world stage. The problem is especially pronounced in Asia and Europe, but can be found everywhere.
The reason for the bust: people moved to cities. On a farm, kids are free labor. In a city, kids are expensive conversational pieces.
1. Deglobalization; and
2. Depopulation
The article focuses mostly on deglobalization, but depopulation is in the horse pulling the cart.
Many are familiar with the deglobalization idea from the last US presidential administration. The current administration kept those tariffs, and abided by the previous commitment to exit Afghanistan. Zeihan argues that this trend toward increasing isolationism goes back decades.
What may seem less familiar is the demographic implosion the entire world is undergoing - a baby bust. The vast majority of major countries with the exception of the US and Mexico have passed a point of no return demographically. Their populations will shrink with mathematical certainty. As their populations ebb, so will their economic growth prospects and place on the world stage. The problem is especially pronounced in Asia and Europe, but can be found everywhere.
The reason for the bust: people moved to cities. On a farm, kids are free labor. In a city, kids are expensive conversational pieces.