By definition, 50% of capital outperforms the SP500, which is an average.
What the Buffett bet was all about is that you don’t know WHO will outperform, and with fees being a net-drag, a basket of hedge funds will on average underperform due to the average of them being, average, and then negative due to fees.
What the Buffett bet was all about is that you don’t know WHO will outperform, and with fees being a net-drag, a basket of hedge funds will on average underperform due to the average of them being, average, and then negative due to fees.