I am not sure if Jason Roberts was the first to use this phrase but here was his take on Luck Surface Area back in 2010. That was the first I personally heard of the term Luck Surface Area. I don't know that Jason's take is any more insightful than the linked article, but I feel like he deserved a call out as well on this topic.
https://www.codusoperandi.com/posts/increasing-your-luck-sur...