"We're not in a recession, we're in the early stages of a depression. A depression is a self-feeding liquidity crisis - it's a cash-flow squeeze that occurs when the economy turns down, inventories are being sold, borrowings increased, and liquidity reduced."
- Raymond T. Dalio, New York Times, Jun 27, 1982
"For decades the numbers have told us that each time the capacity utilization figure moves over 85 percent, the inflation rate rises, and also that each inflation cycle tends to peak at a higher level than the preceding one. During this inflation cycle, we expect capacity utilization to cross the 85 percent line by early 1985, when the CPI should be running at an annual rate of 7.8 percent and well on its way to a cyclical peak of about 11.5 percent sometime in 1986."
- Raymond T. Dalio, New York Times, Jun 17, 1984
Industrial production from Jun 1982 through Jun 1984:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=rU2
Inflation from Jun 1984 through Jun 1986:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=rU3
"For decades the numbers have told us that each time the capacity utilization figure moves over 85 percent, the inflation rate rises, and also that each inflation cycle tends to peak at a higher level than the preceding one. During this inflation cycle, we expect capacity utilization to cross the 85 percent line by early 1985, when the CPI should be running at an annual rate of 7.8 percent and well on its way to a cyclical peak of about 11.5 percent sometime in 1986." - Raymond T. Dalio, New York Times, Jun 17, 1984
Industrial production from Jun 1982 through Jun 1984: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=rU2
Inflation from Jun 1984 through Jun 1986: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=rU3