Anyone have opinions on how long this inflation spike will last, or what the peak will be?
I seriously thought we had maybe peaked earlier this year, and it looks like the peak so far was in March for core inflation excluding food and energy. However, maybe high energy prices will feed back into other consumer prices eventually, triggering more inflation.
The producer price index (PPI) is still really wild, so maybe consumer inflation really hasn't caught up yet: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=QpsI
If you compare that to the 70s or 80s, it vastly exceeds what happened back then. PPI in 2008 was pretty high though too and didn't lead to 70s/80s style inflation, maybe because of lower demand.
I suppose the tightening of monetary policy might help, but other factors (war in Ukraine, supply chain issues) will not change as a result of monetary policy.
edit: CPI graph over time showing CPI minus food/energy https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=i6u6
I seriously thought we had maybe peaked earlier this year, and it looks like the peak so far was in March for core inflation excluding food and energy. However, maybe high energy prices will feed back into other consumer prices eventually, triggering more inflation.
The producer price index (PPI) is still really wild, so maybe consumer inflation really hasn't caught up yet: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=QpsI
If you compare that to the 70s or 80s, it vastly exceeds what happened back then. PPI in 2008 was pretty high though too and didn't lead to 70s/80s style inflation, maybe because of lower demand.
I suppose the tightening of monetary policy might help, but other factors (war in Ukraine, supply chain issues) will not change as a result of monetary policy.
edit: CPI graph over time showing CPI minus food/energy https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=i6u6