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Comment by icambron

The choice happens after the door is opened. If in this variant you are allowed switch to the revealed prize door, you win 100% of the time the prize turns out to be behind the door they open. If you aren't allowed, you lose 100% of the time that happens. So that new "branch" doesn't affect any decision you could make.

But given they do open a door with a goat, the probability is the same as the regular Monty Hall problem. So the parent's point stands: it's not the host's knowledge that makes the game "work". He's leaking information by not opening your door, thus "concentrating" the 2/3 chance it wasn't behind your door into the one remaining door.

parent icambron 4 years ago

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