Well, yeah, there's an intentional effort right now to crush demand because folks realized supply chains don't normalize in two financial quarters (see: "transitory").
All of COVID seems like a case of impatience.
The fact that the pandemic would last years was kind of obvious by late spring 2020 -- when in the history of humanity have humans ever experienced a pandemic that didn't last for years/decades? (I'm not here to debate masks or whatever public health measures; that's entirely tangential to the point that pandemics don't just go away after a few months.) Pandemics do end. Just not in a few financial quarters.
The same thing is happening with "Transitory Inflation" now. The supply shock IS transitory and things WILL normalize, but only in the same sense that pandemics do eventually end. Shit takes years, not quarters.
I think by 2024-2025 we'll be in this weird state where supply is back to normal but where there have been years of policy aimed at crushing demand.
All of COVID seems like a case of impatience.
The fact that the pandemic would last years was kind of obvious by late spring 2020 -- when in the history of humanity have humans ever experienced a pandemic that didn't last for years/decades? (I'm not here to debate masks or whatever public health measures; that's entirely tangential to the point that pandemics don't just go away after a few months.) Pandemics do end. Just not in a few financial quarters.
The same thing is happening with "Transitory Inflation" now. The supply shock IS transitory and things WILL normalize, but only in the same sense that pandemics do eventually end. Shit takes years, not quarters.
I think by 2024-2025 we'll be in this weird state where supply is back to normal but where there have been years of policy aimed at crushing demand.