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Comment by civilized

I'm going to present a critique similar to this one ( https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31568047) but I'll try to slightly rephrase.

Suppose the amount in the envelope you choose is $100. If your amount is the smaller one, the other one has $200. If your amount is the larger one, the other one has $50. So the expectation supporting the switching argument is computed over two different scenarios, where the amounts in the envelopes are {50, 100} and {100, 200} respectively.

This calculation seems to violate a hidden logical constraint: the set of amounts in the two envelopes must be the same no matter what conditional branches we consider for the expectation.

Another related issue - if you switch, the argument for switching back assumes the amount in your original envelope is 4x what you originally said it was.

parent civilized 4 years ago

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