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Comment by mike_hock

No, joe_the_user is exactly correct. The expectation they compute in step 7 requires that A is a constant. The formula seems to just be the regular formula for expectation: Value that B can take times probability that it takes that value, summed over all possible values.

But the "possible values" they put in are A/2 and 2A, which makes no sense. A is a random variable.

Don't forget that random variables are really functions on a probability space with an implicit argument, so (1) when multiple random variables appear in a formula, they're implicitly evaluated at the same argument omega, and the formula must hold for all omega from the probability space, and more importantly, (2) there can't be free-standing omegas in a formula for expectation because expectation is an integral (or sum in this case where the probability space is discrete) over all possible omegas.

parent mike_hock 4 years ago

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