> And I’ll wearily pretend to accept that people are emotional and couldn’t understand Bayesian reasoning or false positives and so we need to worry about stressing them out (#2).
> Why are we taking as given that a net-negative decision to do a biopsy will be made
The author should stop wearily pretending that anxiety isn’t a common result of a positive test, and recognize that the average person is not comforted by a Bayesian analysis when their health could be at risk.
If continuing to a biopsy is as common as the author says (I don’t have any data on it), that suggests anxiety IS a common response and we can’t simply wish it weren’t the case. Mental health is health.
> Why are we taking as given that a net-negative decision to do a biopsy will be made
The author should stop wearily pretending that anxiety isn’t a common result of a positive test, and recognize that the average person is not comforted by a Bayesian analysis when their health could be at risk.
If continuing to a biopsy is as common as the author says (I don’t have any data on it), that suggests anxiety IS a common response and we can’t simply wish it weren’t the case. Mental health is health.