I'm in the camp that thinks we're headed in a perpendicular direction and won't ever get to human levels of AGI with current efforts based on the simple idea that the basic tooling is wrong from first principles. I mean, most of the "progress" in AI has been due to getting better and learning how to understand a single piece of technology: neural networks.
A lot of recent neuroscience findings have shown that human brains _aren't_ just giant neural networks; in fact, they are infinitely more complex. Until we start thinking from the ground up how to build and engineer systems that reflect the human brain, we're essentially wandering around in the dark with perhaps only a piece of what we _think_ is needed for intelligence. (I'm not saying the human brain is the best engineered thing for intelligence either, but I'm saying it's one of the best examples we have to model AI after and that notion has largely been ignored)
I generally think it's hubris to spit in the face of 4 billion years of evolution thinking that some crafty neural net with X number more parameters will emerge magically as a truly generally intelligent entity - it will be a strange abomination at best.
A lot of recent neuroscience findings have shown that human brains _aren't_ just giant neural networks; in fact, they are infinitely more complex. Until we start thinking from the ground up how to build and engineer systems that reflect the human brain, we're essentially wandering around in the dark with perhaps only a piece of what we _think_ is needed for intelligence. (I'm not saying the human brain is the best engineered thing for intelligence either, but I'm saying it's one of the best examples we have to model AI after and that notion has largely been ignored)
I generally think it's hubris to spit in the face of 4 billion years of evolution thinking that some crafty neural net with X number more parameters will emerge magically as a truly generally intelligent entity - it will be a strange abomination at best.