Comment by geoalchimista

With hindsight, yes. It is difficult to predict which field/researcher may become the 10x and which may not. Even an expert panel may have difficulty in judging the prospect of completely novel research. Giving funds only to 10x researchers is akin to investing in stocks that only go up; it sounds appealing, but in reality, how could a funder like NIH or NSF tell who is the 10x?