Beyond the validity of the statistical methods used.. can someone clarify what is the actual hypothesis we are debating about competence? And what does each article propose?
My understanding is that the hypothesis is "Those who are incompetent overestimate themselves, and experts underestimate themselves".
DK says: True
DK is Autocorrelation says: ???
"I cant let go..." says: True?
HN says: also True?
Is there really any debate here? The "DK is Autocorrelation" article seems to be the only odd one out, and it's not clear if it even makes a proposal either way about the DK hypothesis. It talks about the Nuhfer study, but that seems Apples vs Oranges since it buckets by education level. Then it also points out that random noise would also yield the DK effect. But that also does not address the DK hypothesis, and it would indeed be very surprising if people's self evaluation was random!
So should my takeaway here just be that the DK hypothesis is True and that this is all arguing over details?
My understanding is that the hypothesis is "Those who are incompetent overestimate themselves, and experts underestimate themselves".
DK says: True
DK is Autocorrelation says: ???
"I cant let go..." says: True?
HN says: also True?
Is there really any debate here? The "DK is Autocorrelation" article seems to be the only odd one out, and it's not clear if it even makes a proposal either way about the DK hypothesis. It talks about the Nuhfer study, but that seems Apples vs Oranges since it buckets by education level. Then it also points out that random noise would also yield the DK effect. But that also does not address the DK hypothesis, and it would indeed be very surprising if people's self evaluation was random!
So should my takeaway here just be that the DK hypothesis is True and that this is all arguing over details?