What this blogpost does, is start with the base assumptions of "Command Modern Operations", a military-simulator from MatrixGames, as well as the assumption of 2x Neptunes fired + 1x Drone nearby the ship.
With the base assumptions, the Moskva detects both missiles and destroys them long before they're anywhere close to a threat. Of course, this isn't what happened in reality....
From there, the blogpost doubles the OODA loop: Observe, Orient, Decide, Act, making the ship's crew less-and-less competent until the missiles hit. The OODA-loop originally assumes a response time of 15-seconds. But what if it was 30-seconds? 60-seconds? 120-seconds? How long do we give the "crew" to not see the missiles?
A second experiment is then run: what if the RADAR is off? It looks like the CWIS detects the missiles, but its too late: the CWIS can only disable one missile before the second one strikes the ship.
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Of course, just playing around with assumptions probably won't get us to the truth of the matter. But maybe it gives us at least an idea of what the crew was thinking and/or not thinking.
Personally speaking, I would have increased the number of Neptune missiles until two missiles struck the ship in the simulation. There's just a lot of unknown variables here...
With the base assumptions, the Moskva detects both missiles and destroys them long before they're anywhere close to a threat. Of course, this isn't what happened in reality....
From there, the blogpost doubles the OODA loop: Observe, Orient, Decide, Act, making the ship's crew less-and-less competent until the missiles hit. The OODA-loop originally assumes a response time of 15-seconds. But what if it was 30-seconds? 60-seconds? 120-seconds? How long do we give the "crew" to not see the missiles?
A second experiment is then run: what if the RADAR is off? It looks like the CWIS detects the missiles, but its too late: the CWIS can only disable one missile before the second one strikes the ship.
-------
Of course, just playing around with assumptions probably won't get us to the truth of the matter. But maybe it gives us at least an idea of what the crew was thinking and/or not thinking.
Personally speaking, I would have increased the number of Neptune missiles until two missiles struck the ship in the simulation. There's just a lot of unknown variables here...