That's not the same as saying the market wasn't taking the offer seriously.
> The whole "merger arbitrage" industry works around that premise.
If the market price reflected the probability, then an arbitrage strategy should not be profitable.
Usually, these folks have better experience/skills/knowledge about M&A, antitrust, etc than the market average. In other words, the market doesn't reflect the probability of an event happening.
> The whole "merger arbitrage" industry works around that premise.
If the market price reflected the probability, then an arbitrage strategy should not be profitable.
Usually, these folks have better experience/skills/knowledge about M&A, antitrust, etc than the market average. In other words, the market doesn't reflect the probability of an event happening.