This is another one of those unfortunately clickbait titled papers. What the paper actually states is:
- Sanctions with economic goals have been demonstrated to work fairly well.
- Sanctions alone with political goals are only demonstrated to work in a minority of studied cases. Sanctions combined with military action tend to perform better, but then you end up with problems teasing out causal effects.
- Sanctions can be mitigated by whipping up nationalistic fervor, substitution via other avenues, and shifting the burden to disenfranchised groups.
- The current research on this is crap quality.
The breadth and scale of the current sanctions against Russia (far bigger and more comprehensive than any in history) will make substitution harder. As well, Russia is engaged in a very expensive war that is quickly depleting her coffers due to wastage, poor training, bad coordination, and low morale. With scores of Western countries actively supplying billions in arms to Ukraine, that does not bode well.
- Sanctions with economic goals have been demonstrated to work fairly well.
- Sanctions alone with political goals are only demonstrated to work in a minority of studied cases. Sanctions combined with military action tend to perform better, but then you end up with problems teasing out causal effects.
- Sanctions can be mitigated by whipping up nationalistic fervor, substitution via other avenues, and shifting the burden to disenfranchised groups.
- The current research on this is crap quality.
The breadth and scale of the current sanctions against Russia (far bigger and more comprehensive than any in history) will make substitution harder. As well, Russia is engaged in a very expensive war that is quickly depleting her coffers due to wastage, poor training, bad coordination, and low morale. With scores of Western countries actively supplying billions in arms to Ukraine, that does not bode well.