Changing classifications aren't going to affect the bet, because both of these gents know what they're betting on.
If I could make a $10,000 bet with John Carmack, I'd go the way Atwood has. No way there will be fully self-driving cars by 2030. That's only 8 years away. Fully self-driving cars need one of two things:
A) All cars are self-driving, and are networked, and centrally controlled. No exceptions.
B) The AI is smart enough that we should be worried about the ethical implications.
If an AI can react to terrible human drivers as well as a good human driver can, then I'd invite that AI over for dinner.
If I could make a $10,000 bet with John Carmack, I'd go the way Atwood has. No way there will be fully self-driving cars by 2030. That's only 8 years away. Fully self-driving cars need one of two things:
A) All cars are self-driving, and are networked, and centrally controlled. No exceptions.
B) The AI is smart enough that we should be worried about the ethical implications.
If an AI can react to terrible human drivers as well as a good human driver can, then I'd invite that AI over for dinner.