If you are lost in a city would you rather have the wrong map or no map at all?
The person that has the wrong map and thinks that it’s the right map is the one that’s naive.
Regarding insurance companies, you are conflating ensemble probabilities with time probabilities. Insurance companies can estimate the ensemble probability of an event in a group of agents which belong to a certain category and not the time probability of said event on a single agent.
The person that has the wrong map and thinks that it’s the right map is the one that’s naive.
Regarding insurance companies, you are conflating ensemble probabilities with time probabilities. Insurance companies can estimate the ensemble probability of an event in a group of agents which belong to a certain category and not the time probability of said event on a single agent.