No, that’s not quite right. Measuring “did we have a nuclear war?” is not the input you’d ever want to use there, it’s only one binary digit of information.
Instead take info like “did we have events/incidents with a high potential of nuclear war?”
If three “Cuban missile crisis” level events happened in year X, then the probability of nuclear war in year x+1 is higher than it was in other years — even though nuclear war didn’t occur in either year. If national leaders make no statements threatening war in year A, then it’s probably safer than year B where there were 100 such threats.
Instead take info like “did we have events/incidents with a high potential of nuclear war?”
If three “Cuban missile crisis” level events happened in year X, then the probability of nuclear war in year x+1 is higher than it was in other years — even though nuclear war didn’t occur in either year. If national leaders make no statements threatening war in year A, then it’s probably safer than year B where there were 100 such threats.