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Comment by arcticbull

I strongly suspect that would be a disaster for their stock price.

They remain priced at $837B market cap (even after a dramatic recent rout where Elon sold the top and is now under SEC investigation for doing so), while Toyota has a $300B market cap. Toyota makes ~8M cars per year [1]. Tesla made 400K cars last year [2].

Toyota made 20X more cars and has a market cap just 36% of TSLA.

There's a few ways cultists (err, sorry, investors) justify this valuation gap.

1. Self driving cars.

2. High margins.

If you give up on self-driving and you start making lower-margin cars, you start to look an awful lot like a car company, which would mean you'd have to reduce their stock price to just 10-20% of where it's at right now. From $800 to $80-160. And that's generous, leaving room for some of their fun pet projects like the always-next-year solar roof tile [3].

[1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/267272/worldwide-vehicle...

[2] https://backlinko.com/tesla-stats

[3] https://electrek.co/2022/02/02/tesla-supply-chain-issues-ext...

parent arcticbull 4 years ago

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