The real problem for Starship (IMHO) is Falcon 9. Falcon 9 is now the most reliable launch vehicle ever created. With reuse the may well be $10m per launch or even less by now and likely to continue to drop. F9 can deliver ~22t to LEO and smaller payloads to geosynchronous orbit. The payloads F9 can't deliver are quite small.
What people forget is that payloads are deeply coupled to their launch vehicles. The launch vehicle will dictate the maximum weight and dimensions of the payload. You can't just take a payload designed for one vehicle and put it on another.
The evidence for this is the relatively few Falcon Heavy launches we've had and are planned.
So now SpaceX has all this launch capacity without the matching demand for it. It's a big part of why Starlink exists.
Cheaper and larger payload capacities will ultimately change the industry and create demand but that takes years.
It's likely Starship will launch ISS replacements but is there sufficient demand there for this ambitious launch vehicle? What else will it be used for? That's a bit of an open question.
What people forget is that payloads are deeply coupled to their launch vehicles. The launch vehicle will dictate the maximum weight and dimensions of the payload. You can't just take a payload designed for one vehicle and put it on another.
The evidence for this is the relatively few Falcon Heavy launches we've had and are planned.
So now SpaceX has all this launch capacity without the matching demand for it. It's a big part of why Starlink exists.
Cheaper and larger payload capacities will ultimately change the industry and create demand but that takes years.
It's likely Starship will launch ISS replacements but is there sufficient demand there for this ambitious launch vehicle? What else will it be used for? That's a bit of an open question.