Comment Comment by wavegeek > over that 10-20 year cycle the market is always net upThis is simply not true especially if you take inflation into account.And even more so if you look outside the US (one of the top 1% of market performers over the last 100 years - hindsight bias).For example Japan total return index had a 30 year drawdown post 1989 even in nominal terms. The US market from 1966-1992 total inflation adjusted return (26 years) was zero. http://www.simplestockinvesting.com/SP500-historical-real-to... parent wavegeek 4 years ago
This is simply not true especially if you take inflation into account.
And even more so if you look outside the US (one of the top 1% of market performers over the last 100 years - hindsight bias).
For example Japan total return index had a 30 year drawdown post 1989 even in nominal terms. The US market from 1966-1992 total inflation adjusted return (26 years) was zero. http://www.simplestockinvesting.com/SP500-historical-real-to...