Agreed, macro predictions are very hard. Much easier to make predictions on individual assets (companies, commodities etc.) and hold long term.
Also, precisely because macro is hard, these analyses often feel superficial.
Inflation, especially if exogenous, can negatively impact the economy but at the same time cash-alternative assets become more attractive. What's the ultimate effect there?
And what about historically low interest rates? Don’t they warrant a shift in investment preferences towards stocks?
Wether a macro prediction turns out to be right or wrong it’s rare to read a deeper argument than “things are too high must go down”.
Also, precisely because macro is hard, these analyses often feel superficial.
Inflation, especially if exogenous, can negatively impact the economy but at the same time cash-alternative assets become more attractive. What's the ultimate effect there?
And what about historically low interest rates? Don’t they warrant a shift in investment preferences towards stocks?
Wether a macro prediction turns out to be right or wrong it’s rare to read a deeper argument than “things are too high must go down”.