Yes, some basis exists for such assumptions. RuPay and UPI were originally conceptualised by RBI and Govt of India to solve the overdependence problem. Otherwise RBI and GoI had no reason to introduce RuPay and they could have let the market develop organically.
Recent RBI moves of data localisation and enforcement actions against Diners, American Express and Mastercard also indicate strong intent.
Recent RBI moves of data localisation and enforcement actions against Diners, American Express and Mastercard also indicate strong intent.