Those quotes describe a taut rubber band that could easily be released in the next 1-2 years.
> With families building up savings during pandemic and increasingly working from home, demand for property is on the rise...
Return to office, taking deferred vacations, etc. winds down the savings.
> labour shortages, global supply chain bottlenecks
won't last forever.
So there's downside demand-side risk and upside supply-side risks, with identical underlying causal triggering conditions (end of pandemic). Oh, and how long can central banks hold off on rate increases?
The risk of a violent crash has less to do with the probability of a rapid post-pandemic renormalization and more to do with the tight causal links between the risks of upside supply and downside demand. Less like "crash will definitely happen" and more like "X_1, ..., X_n all have unknown but likely highly correlated probabilities, so if one happens they all happen and if you get X_1, ..., X_n all at once there'll definitely be a crash"
I think.
> With families building up savings during pandemic and increasingly working from home, demand for property is on the rise...
Return to office, taking deferred vacations, etc. winds down the savings.
> labour shortages, global supply chain bottlenecks
won't last forever.
So there's downside demand-side risk and upside supply-side risks, with identical underlying causal triggering conditions (end of pandemic). Oh, and how long can central banks hold off on rate increases?
The risk of a violent crash has less to do with the probability of a rapid post-pandemic renormalization and more to do with the tight causal links between the risks of upside supply and downside demand. Less like "crash will definitely happen" and more like "X_1, ..., X_n all have unknown but likely highly correlated probabilities, so if one happens they all happen and if you get X_1, ..., X_n all at once there'll definitely be a crash"
I think.