What this doesn’t really address is the why?
Yeah there’s more money floating around, so perhaps more people want to spend it, but why? Most people aren’t getting materially more stuff or even need that much more stuff, consumption’s already god damn conspicuous.
Maybe everyone can afford a jet ski all of a sudden? No, the stims didn’t really do /that/ kind of wealth expansion.
To me, this still looks like the bullwhip effect, which is expected to have an outsized effect on demand over at least a year or two.
Buyers, who got used to “just in time” shipping, got spooked by shipping delays and shortages from their suppliers, because of supply demand imbalances during shutdowns, and as a response they all put in orders for 2 to 3 times the amount they usually buy from their suppliers with the intent of rebuilding domestic stock so they don’t miss out on sales.
All of a sudden, aggregate demand explodes.
Shocking.
Yeah there’s more money floating around, so perhaps more people want to spend it, but why? Most people aren’t getting materially more stuff or even need that much more stuff, consumption’s already god damn conspicuous.
Maybe everyone can afford a jet ski all of a sudden? No, the stims didn’t really do /that/ kind of wealth expansion.
To me, this still looks like the bullwhip effect, which is expected to have an outsized effect on demand over at least a year or two.
Buyers, who got used to “just in time” shipping, got spooked by shipping delays and shortages from their suppliers, because of supply demand imbalances during shutdowns, and as a response they all put in orders for 2 to 3 times the amount they usually buy from their suppliers with the intent of rebuilding domestic stock so they don’t miss out on sales.
All of a sudden, aggregate demand explodes.
Shocking.