> Smoothed recession probabilities for the United States are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales.
Manufacturing and trade and industrial production? The supply chain's a disaster area right now. And real personal income is going to be down because inflation is up (the transfer payments we've been making are of course excluded). Employment numbers are steady, at least.
Manufacturing and trade and industrial production? The supply chain's a disaster area right now. And real personal income is going to be down because inflation is up (the transfer payments we've been making are of course excluded). Employment numbers are steady, at least.