The Fed massages the inflation rate by throwing out "extreme" deviations.
> Mr. Powell used a gauge from the Dallas Fed that throws out the top 31% and bottom 24% of personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price changes, and was bang on the Fed’s 2% year-over-year target in July, the latest available. An alternative measure from the Cleveland Fed strips out the top and bottom 16% of consumer-price index changes, and was far higher; worse, the monthly rate was unchanged in August from July, giving no support to the idea that inflation is already coming back down. [0]
> Mr. Powell used a gauge from the Dallas Fed that throws out the top 31% and bottom 24% of personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price changes, and was bang on the Fed’s 2% year-over-year target in July, the latest available. An alternative measure from the Cleveland Fed strips out the top and bottom 16% of consumer-price index changes, and was far higher; worse, the monthly rate was unchanged in August from July, giving no support to the idea that inflation is already coming back down. [0]
[0] WSJ: https://archive.md/A7SIh#selection-4683.0-4706.0