I really dislike posts in this vein, because they use statements like
"This post will teach you how to replace estimations and guesses with a Monte Carlo simulation."
as though the output of a Monte Carlo simulation were not an estimate, but some higher truth. The process of simulating many different outcomes with a touch of randomness gives the layperson the impression that we are really _doing_ something, when in fact we could have obtained the exact result (no confidence intervals needed) of Monte Carlo by quadrature (although admittedly that could be tedious).
In the end, the method outlined in the link is an estimate, like any other, and is not necessarily better or worse than any other estimate. It erects a straw person and then misuses mathematical terminology throughout.
"This post will teach you how to replace estimations and guesses with a Monte Carlo simulation."
as though the output of a Monte Carlo simulation were not an estimate, but some higher truth. The process of simulating many different outcomes with a touch of randomness gives the layperson the impression that we are really _doing_ something, when in fact we could have obtained the exact result (no confidence intervals needed) of Monte Carlo by quadrature (although admittedly that could be tedious).
In the end, the method outlined in the link is an estimate, like any other, and is not necessarily better or worse than any other estimate. It erects a straw person and then misuses mathematical terminology throughout.