Swings, maybe. There's room for forecasting at larger or smaller intervals, even if swings are unforecastable. That said, I don't think most big financial events are
black swan events in some sense but not others.
Financial black swans don't tend to be random, real world events. We're living through a major real world event now, and the financial markets haven't collapse... though a lot of weird stuff is happening. The 2008 crisis and many others had not real world. Real world links were gradual and fairly financial in nature, an accumulation of debt/risk/leverage/lies/fragility or whatnot over time.
These are more like bugs, design flaws or fail conditions, IMO.
From a financial analyst's perspective they're "black swans" because they are events with a >0% likelihood that (by definition) are not priced into security prices or financial systems.
From a forecasting model POV... who knows.
In any case, forecasting the future of the economy is probably very very hard. If it's possible, it probably has epic sci-fi level consequences.
Financial black swans don't tend to be random, real world events. We're living through a major real world event now, and the financial markets haven't collapse... though a lot of weird stuff is happening. The 2008 crisis and many others had not real world. Real world links were gradual and fairly financial in nature, an accumulation of debt/risk/leverage/lies/fragility or whatnot over time.
These are more like bugs, design flaws or fail conditions, IMO.
From a financial analyst's perspective they're "black swans" because they are events with a >0% likelihood that (by definition) are not priced into security prices or financial systems.
From a forecasting model POV... who knows.
In any case, forecasting the future of the economy is probably very very hard. If it's possible, it probably has epic sci-fi level consequences.