I was being too indirect. Your framework doesn't have predictive value. 'This person had an extremely favorable outcome, therefore they are elite' is a retrospective judgment, it can't be used to form a hypothesis. It is unfalsifiable.
Whether someone is Scottish, or any "easy to measure" fact, has nothing to do with the No True Scotsman fallacy.
Whether someone is Scottish, or any "easy to measure" fact, has nothing to do with the No True Scotsman fallacy.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falsifiability https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_true_Scotsman