>Prediction markets would influence the processes they're supposed to be impartially observing.
Who said anything about impartiality (/cordially a strawman)?
Changing behaviors is a feature not a bug. Your health insurance writer (who's bought "No optimalsolver will not get sick") loses money if you do in fact get sick. Your fire insurance writer has an incentive to provide you free fire inspections because it reduces their payouts. A farmer plants a lucrative but fragile crop because a meteorologist can better price weather risks than they can.
Swapping exposure across space and time is a productive act.
Who said anything about impartiality (/cordially a strawman)?
Changing behaviors is a feature not a bug. Your health insurance writer (who's bought "No optimalsolver will not get sick") loses money if you do in fact get sick. Your fire insurance writer has an incentive to provide you free fire inspections because it reduces their payouts. A farmer plants a lucrative but fragile crop because a meteorologist can better price weather risks than they can.
Swapping exposure across space and time is a productive act.