Prediction #9: Apple’s laptop sales will exceed those
of HP/Compaq, IBM, Dell and Gateway combined by 2010.
Reason for prediction: Macs rule. Windows laptops are as
exciting as a shiny disco ball in the ceiling.
Honestly, to me, that's just absurd on a fundamental level. And the reasoning just reeks of fanboy-ism (note: I have no idea who Steve Yegge is - I just clicked through out of curiosity).
I tried to actually Google the market share for Macbooks,
but it’s probably impossible to find an absolute number.
Not hard. Found the following with two searches in just a few minutes:
Circa Q2'08 (so, four years after the prediction) [1]:
Apple laptop North American market share 10.6%.
Dell and HP are both 21%, Acer is just under 15%, Toshiba is 9%, and "All Others" are 22%.
Circa Q1'11 Apple Notebooks are 5.7% global market share
[2] and Apple is 8.5% of shipped notebooks + desktops [3].
At best, Apple COO Tim Cook says in Oct. 2010 that 20% of sold laptops + desktops are Macs [4].
[1] http://arstechnica.com/apple/news/2008/09/apple-gains-us-mar...
[2] http://www.ventureoutsource.com/contract-manufacturing/taiwa...
[3] http://www.notebookcheck.net/Acer-loses-its-Q1-2011-market-s...
[4] http://www.betanews.com/joewilcox/article/App-Store-comes-to...
Circa Q2'08 (so, four years after the prediction) [1]: Apple laptop North American market share 10.6%. Dell and HP are both 21%, Acer is just under 15%, Toshiba is 9%, and "All Others" are 22%.
Circa Q1'11 Apple Notebooks are 5.7% global market share [2] and Apple is 8.5% of shipped notebooks + desktops [3].
At best, Apple COO Tim Cook says in Oct. 2010 that 20% of sold laptops + desktops are Macs [4].
[1] http://arstechnica.com/apple/news/2008/09/apple-gains-us-mar...
[2] http://www.ventureoutsource.com/contract-manufacturing/taiwa...
[3] http://www.notebookcheck.net/Acer-loses-its-Q1-2011-market-s...
[4] http://www.betanews.com/joewilcox/article/App-Store-comes-to...