> Some scientists are beginning to worry they might have underestimated how quickly the climate will change. Or have we just misunderstood extreme weather events and how our warming climate will influence them?
James Hansen pointed out long ago (eight years? more?) that the variance of the PDF of temperature difference from climatological average increases, not just the central location.
(In layman's terms: not only is the bell-shaped curve shifting over to the right, it's also getting squashed down flatter and wider.)
So you don't just get proportionately more extreme weather events: you get a lot more than that. As well as many, many more extreme heat-related events, we can expect to see extreme cold events at a similar rate as in the past (or perhaps slightly more of them). Like Texas's this year.
James Hansen pointed out long ago (eight years? more?) that the variance of the PDF of temperature difference from climatological average increases, not just the central location.
(In layman's terms: not only is the bell-shaped curve shifting over to the right, it's also getting squashed down flatter and wider.)
So you don't just get proportionately more extreme weather events: you get a lot more than that. As well as many, many more extreme heat-related events, we can expect to see extreme cold events at a similar rate as in the past (or perhaps slightly more of them). Like Texas's this year.
I think this point is not widely appreciated.