At least I have some math, it looks like you pulled your numbers out of your butt.
It's true that you won't have 250 jobs in your career. But you don't need 250 jobs in your career. Take 10 jobs over 10 years. Eventually stay at the one that's promising. Startup returns have power law distribution, I'm sure you'll make some money eventually.
I don't know, my math might not be perfect, but it's not as ridiculous as you make it look.
> What are the odds you actually land that 1/250 that has a great exit?
What are the odds you're getting that Google job? Google has 0.67% acceptance rate apparently. That's only 7% probability of getting that job over 10 years. Or do you think you're more qualified and your odds are higher? If you think you're more qualified, then why do you think you're less likely to pick the right startup and get the right startup job?
It's true that you won't have 250 jobs in your career. But you don't need 250 jobs in your career. Take 10 jobs over 10 years. Eventually stay at the one that's promising. Startup returns have power law distribution, I'm sure you'll make some money eventually.
I don't know, my math might not be perfect, but it's not as ridiculous as you make it look.
> What are the odds you actually land that 1/250 that has a great exit?
What are the odds you're getting that Google job? Google has 0.67% acceptance rate apparently. That's only 7% probability of getting that job over 10 years. Or do you think you're more qualified and your odds are higher? If you think you're more qualified, then why do you think you're less likely to pick the right startup and get the right startup job?