Yes, and I sometimes think about the inverse - that people like to hate on lottery players (which I'm not) with a clever sounding argument like E[X] < 1, so don't play, you'll lose.
But this fails to acknowledge the harder to model 'but I can pay £1 to play, I won't miss it, who cares, it's insignificant, and on the tiny chance I win, the win is significant'. I.e. 'but Var[X] is massive'.
Yes, and I sometimes think about the inverse - that people like to hate on lottery players (which I'm not) with a clever sounding argument like E[X] < 1, so don't play, you'll lose.
But this fails to acknowledge the harder to model 'but I can pay £1 to play, I won't miss it, who cares, it's insignificant, and on the tiny chance I win, the win is significant'. I.e. 'but Var[X] is massive'.