> [1] A glaring counterexample to your hypothesis is Brazil (Manuas) where prior infections (as high as 60%) didn't stop the P1 variant from ripping through.
The prior infection estimates for Manaus were simply wrong. They were based on a paper that "adjusted" the observed seroprevalence rates upward by a factor of ~3x. The parsimonious conclusion is that these corrections were too aggressive and ended up over-estimating infections. See Figure 2a in the paper, here:
It is a "glaring" example only of how the low editorial standards of major journals during this pandemic has led to a wave of confusion amongst the public.
The prior infection estimates for Manaus were simply wrong. They were based on a paper that "adjusted" the observed seroprevalence rates upward by a factor of ~3x. The parsimonious conclusion is that these corrections were too aggressive and ended up over-estimating infections. See Figure 2a in the paper, here:
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33293339/#&gid=article-figur...
It is a "glaring" example only of how the low editorial standards of major journals during this pandemic has led to a wave of confusion amongst the public.