> for now we assume that total COVID-19 deaths equal excess mortality.
This seems reasonable, although I'd suggest it's an underestimate of COVID-19 deaths.
Excess deaths counts have been consistently showing negative in countries during periods of time where they have coronavirus under control.
Other significant causes of death (including suicide, influenza, road traffic accidents) appear to be down.
As such, I'd assume that COVID-19 deaths are likely somewhat higher than excess mortality figures. I'm prepared to accept the assumption that they're approximately the same.
[Edited to note: the linked article discusses this with further detail and evidence]
This seems reasonable, although I'd suggest it's an underestimate of COVID-19 deaths.
Excess deaths counts have been consistently showing negative in countries during periods of time where they have coronavirus under control.
Other significant causes of death (including suicide, influenza, road traffic accidents) appear to be down.
As such, I'd assume that COVID-19 deaths are likely somewhat higher than excess mortality figures. I'm prepared to accept the assumption that they're approximately the same.
[Edited to note: the linked article discusses this with further detail and evidence]