> The rewards for working on new ideas are weighted by the value of the outcome. So it's worth working on something that only has a 10% chance of succeeding if it would make things more than 10x better
This is the primary point here - the "crazy idea" may (and likely does) have a low probability of being correct and succeeding, but with an outsized reward it may still be worth pursuing. This is, almost by definition, the correct way of looking at it.
Also note that he's talking about crazy ideas from "reasonable domain experts", not your run of the mill crazy.
This is not just a response to Mighty - he's been talking about this for years.
This is the primary point here - the "crazy idea" may (and likely does) have a low probability of being correct and succeeding, but with an outsized reward it may still be worth pursuing. This is, almost by definition, the correct way of looking at it.
Also note that he's talking about crazy ideas from "reasonable domain experts", not your run of the mill crazy.
This is not just a response to Mighty - he's been talking about this for years.