Anyone outside the top echelons of the PLA/CCP who claims to predict when the invasion of Taiwan will happen is a soothsayer. That it will happen is a certainty, which means there's always a ready market of people willing to say it'll happen in the near future.
But one thing is certain - it's a question of when, not if. Taking control of Taiwan is too important to the founding myth of the CCP. Every reminder that Taiwan exists is a challenge to their power. Their desire for Taiwan has never wavered in the last 72 years, nor do I think it will ever. Meanwhile Taiwan's main defender (America) has no permanent allies, only permanent interests. Once the semiconductor supply chain is replicated successfully in the US, they might find that they're no longer willing to sacrifice American lives to protect the sovereignty of Taiwan. At some point in the next 10-40 years, Taiwan will be a bargaining chip America will trade away for something else they value more.
But one thing is certain - it's a question of when, not if. Taking control of Taiwan is too important to the founding myth of the CCP. Every reminder that Taiwan exists is a challenge to their power. Their desire for Taiwan has never wavered in the last 72 years, nor do I think it will ever. Meanwhile Taiwan's main defender (America) has no permanent allies, only permanent interests. Once the semiconductor supply chain is replicated successfully in the US, they might find that they're no longer willing to sacrifice American lives to protect the sovereignty of Taiwan. At some point in the next 10-40 years, Taiwan will be a bargaining chip America will trade away for something else they value more.