Rationality as a tool to serve yourself. A lot of SSC and AC10 is around this idea that rational intelligent thinking with self awareness of bias allows you to model the world accurately.
As for the rest, yes, I agree with you. Often, after having considered a great deal of evidence, I condense the finding into some strength of belief about something. Now, absent the original evidence I have a position. This is usually fine since I actually lack the ability to summon all evidence on demand.
It's okay, though, since I (and I suspect most people intuitively) have both a likelihood notion and a certainty in likelihood notion analogous to a Confidence Interval and P-value, if you will.
So I might hold the belief that GME is going to be between 120 and infinity on Jan 13 2022 and have a certainty in that belief that is like 10% but lose the evidence that made me think that.
This is also sort of a failure mode for fast Aumann Agreement even in co-incentivized individuals - the fact that memory is short.
So the problem is that my certainty holding is not well done.
Thanks for the thought prompt.
As for the rest, yes, I agree with you. Often, after having considered a great deal of evidence, I condense the finding into some strength of belief about something. Now, absent the original evidence I have a position. This is usually fine since I actually lack the ability to summon all evidence on demand.
It's okay, though, since I (and I suspect most people intuitively) have both a likelihood notion and a certainty in likelihood notion analogous to a Confidence Interval and P-value, if you will.
So I might hold the belief that GME is going to be between 120 and infinity on Jan 13 2022 and have a certainty in that belief that is like 10% but lose the evidence that made me think that.
This is also sort of a failure mode for fast Aumann Agreement even in co-incentivized individuals - the fact that memory is short.
So the problem is that my certainty holding is not well done.
Thanks for the thought prompt.