I've never seen an estimate that withstood any kind of scrutiny. I've seen estimates based on both fundamental misunderstanding of the function of mining, and wild assumptions regarding miner behavior and out of date asic specs. Have you bothered fact checking any of those claims you just made? I mean actually reading the papers they cite, and learning the methodology they used. Because while you're thinking about conquistas, I'm thinking about the field of cybernetics in the 70's, and how it killed itself dead with ridiculously flawed methodology for modeling population growth - as the Davos types all nodded in agreement.
"Give me a one-handed Economist. All my economists say 'on the one hand...', then 'but on the other..."
"Give me a one-handed Economist. All my economists say 'on the one hand...', then 'but on the other..."
-- Harry Truman