I somewhat disagree, I think experiments are a great way to overcome wasted motion. Sure, only 20% will succeed. But there's a major asymmetry with trying new things - you can drop the failures after trying it once, but can keep doing the successes again and again.
For example, if I want to find a new hobby, I should try lots of things. 80% will be boring and I can drop it after one session, but 20% could be incredibly fun, and worth doing for the rest of my life.
I somewhat disagree, I think experiments are a great way to overcome wasted motion. Sure, only 20% will succeed. But there's a major asymmetry with trying new things - you can drop the failures after trying it once, but can keep doing the successes again and again.
For example, if I want to find a new hobby, I should try lots of things. 80% will be boring and I can drop it after one session, but 20% could be incredibly fun, and worth doing for the rest of my life.
I flesh this point out in this post: https://www.neelnanda.io/blog/33-upside-risk