Yeah, exactly. The thing is, where do you draw the line of what is statistically so unlikely that you can deem it improbable?
If we run multiple different climate models through some sort of Monte Carlo simulation, I suppose each model would output a different probability of such an event occuring. In the case where all models predict a very low probability, it may be easy to say that it is unlikely. But what if two predict a very low and one predicts a low probability? Is this now applicable and should we build to be able to sustain such an event?
These are hard questions and I currently do not see any way to get better data for the future as the different models still do not agree in many points
If we run multiple different climate models through some sort of Monte Carlo simulation, I suppose each model would output a different probability of such an event occuring. In the case where all models predict a very low probability, it may be easy to say that it is unlikely. But what if two predict a very low and one predicts a low probability? Is this now applicable and should we build to be able to sustain such an event?
These are hard questions and I currently do not see any way to get better data for the future as the different models still do not agree in many points