> Now fast-forward one year. In March of 2020, I bought a large amount of Bitcoin. At the time, I saw a market dislocation and the likelihood of significant dollar inflation due to the US Government’s likely response to the unfolding pandemic.
I'm frustrated by this statement. If you predict inflation in the USD that is not currently priced into the market, then there are already plenty of conventional ways to make money on the prediction.
For example, go long on real-return (inflation-adjusted) bonds, and go short on nominal bonds. Or purchase call options on commodities (preferably ones like food or energy that would be directly part of the predicted inflation). Or just invest in less-speculative equities like utilities or transport.
There's no need to structure investments to also bring in the entire unhinged, speculative nature of cryptocurrencies just to place a bet on inflation. Bitcoin (vs the USD) has had tenfold increases (year-over-year) and larger than 50% drops, all against a USD that has not in fact experienced abrupt price-level swings (expressed in terms of consumer goods).
I'm frustrated by this statement. If you predict inflation in the USD that is not currently priced into the market, then there are already plenty of conventional ways to make money on the prediction.
For example, go long on real-return (inflation-adjusted) bonds, and go short on nominal bonds. Or purchase call options on commodities (preferably ones like food or energy that would be directly part of the predicted inflation). Or just invest in less-speculative equities like utilities or transport.
There's no need to structure investments to also bring in the entire unhinged, speculative nature of cryptocurrencies just to place a bet on inflation. Bitcoin (vs the USD) has had tenfold increases (year-over-year) and larger than 50% drops, all against a USD that has not in fact experienced abrupt price-level swings (expressed in terms of consumer goods).