If I'm reading correctly, the bet covered events in a period of 4 years. Given this, I think Pinker had the better side of the wager. Of course, with hindsight he was wrong, but with hindsight I'm a lottery winner.
With any starting year between 2000 and 2016, Pinker would have won. I'd guess that's the case for the next decade, too.
With any starting year between 2000 and 2016, Pinker would have won. I'd guess that's the case for the next decade, too.