Hm I admit it's hard to talk convincingly about election prediction, since we don't have practical algorithms to do this; a lot of it comes down to human judgment.
The philosophical point (which might be approximated algorithmically someday, or by intelligent minds today) is that your election probabilities should come out of an overall highly compressed model of the world. In theory, a Bayesian who uses the prior 2^-K(x) over all strings x should, with sufficient life experience, come up with good estimates, in a certain sense.
I'll have to think about this example more carefully when fulfilling my promise of writing about how this theory relates to everyday decision-making. Thanks for pointing out a potential weakness :)
The philosophical point (which might be approximated algorithmically someday, or by intelligent minds today) is that your election probabilities should come out of an overall highly compressed model of the world. In theory, a Bayesian who uses the prior 2^-K(x) over all strings x should, with sufficient life experience, come up with good estimates, in a certain sense.
I'll have to think about this example more carefully when fulfilling my promise of writing about how this theory relates to everyday decision-making. Thanks for pointing out a potential weakness :)