>You also see betting markets are generally more Republican-leaning in ways that were ultimately born out
I think the first half of this is the money quote. The markets are definitely more Republican (or maybe just Trump?) leaning. I'm not convinced that the second half being true isn't just a coincidence.
IMO the analysis about how PredictIt bettors followed 2016 polling trends seems to be ascribing them an excess of rationality. I think if you mirror that S-curve diagonally you can see that: The betting markets put really high odds for Trump in states like New Hampshire and Minnesota(which went 55% to Biden but still had 25% odds of going blue). If you look at the mirroring red states which went 55% to Trump, there were no bettors expecting a blue wave (Missouri and South Carolina had ~5% odds of going blue).
When you look at markets like "Who Will Win California" or "Who Will Win the Popular Vote", I'm convinced that many people making bets are delusional.
I think the first half of this is the money quote. The markets are definitely more Republican (or maybe just Trump?) leaning. I'm not convinced that the second half being true isn't just a coincidence.
IMO the analysis about how PredictIt bettors followed 2016 polling trends seems to be ascribing them an excess of rationality. I think if you mirror that S-curve diagonally you can see that: The betting markets put really high odds for Trump in states like New Hampshire and Minnesota(which went 55% to Biden but still had 25% odds of going blue). If you look at the mirroring red states which went 55% to Trump, there were no bettors expecting a blue wave (Missouri and South Carolina had ~5% odds of going blue).
When you look at markets like "Who Will Win California" or "Who Will Win the Popular Vote", I'm convinced that many people making bets are delusional.