Somewhat deceptive submission title ("No Excess Deaths in Sweden Compared to the Last the Years") and presentation, which might lead the inattentive to think 2020 is on a pace for fewer total deaths in Sweden than all or most previous years.
Chart declares itself to be data "as of November 6". That's the 311th day of our 365-day leap-year 2020. Thus naively scaling the 77,300 number to the full year would predict ((365/311) * 77300 =) 90,721 deaths in 2020. That's higher than 5 of the shown previous 10 years.
But also, the deaths as of November 6 may not be a complete total: often such data series continue to be updated (increased) for a few weeks after the calendar date.
And further: looking at US figures for 2017, November tends to have about an average number of daily deaths, but December is one of the deadliest months, with about 15% more deaths-per-day than is typical in the lowest-deaths Summer months of June-July-August.
So even my extrapolation to 90,721 is likely to be a floor on the true end-of year number, if lagged reporting or a typical December death acceleration means these November 6 numbers aren't an accurate sample for the full year. (And that's not even counting the Covid-19 case surge happening now in Sweden as with most of Europe.)
Everyone trying to draw final conclusions from Sweden is making a call too soon based on incomplete data. We probably won't truly understand whether Sweden is on-net a Covid-19 success or disaster until retrospective analyses balancing all factors in late 2022 or 2023.
Chart declares itself to be data "as of November 6". That's the 311th day of our 365-day leap-year 2020. Thus naively scaling the 77,300 number to the full year would predict ((365/311) * 77300 =) 90,721 deaths in 2020. That's higher than 5 of the shown previous 10 years.
But also, the deaths as of November 6 may not be a complete total: often such data series continue to be updated (increased) for a few weeks after the calendar date.
And further: looking at US figures for 2017, November tends to have about an average number of daily deaths, but December is one of the deadliest months, with about 15% more deaths-per-day than is typical in the lowest-deaths Summer months of June-July-August.
So even my extrapolation to 90,721 is likely to be a floor on the true end-of year number, if lagged reporting or a typical December death acceleration means these November 6 numbers aren't an accurate sample for the full year. (And that's not even counting the Covid-19 case surge happening now in Sweden as with most of Europe.)
Everyone trying to draw final conclusions from Sweden is making a call too soon based on incomplete data. We probably won't truly understand whether Sweden is on-net a Covid-19 success or disaster until retrospective analyses balancing all factors in late 2022 or 2023.