Comment

Comment by Green_man

Trafalgar almost certainly got more states wrong (counts aren't all finished, but we do know likely winners in all states). Other sites like 538 predicted all states correctly, except NC and FL (50.5%/48.8% and 50.9%/48.4% respectively, both predictions wrongly favoring Biden [1]). Meanwhile, Trafalgar's polls put Trump up in NV, GA, PA, AZ, and MI (from their website, all late Oct / early Nov polls [2]). Once counts are final, we can more accurately compare margins and errors more specifically, but Trafalgar does not have a good record for 2020. Comparing models to a single pollster isn't completely even, but it's important to note that the Trafalgar polls were mostly outliers, disagreeing with the consensus in many states [3].

[1]https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

[2]https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/

[3]https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general... https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

parent Green_man 6 years ago

Discussion

Live from the official Hacker News API

A modern reader for Hacker News · SvelteKit + Skeleton